This window can be used to come up with cost of gain, break even, profit, and slaughter date projections. This can be done on an ad hoc basis or for a specific lot. There are several ways of using the window to come up with the projections, including using historical data in Fusion itself.
The window has three main areas, arranged vertically, which work together. The top area, Source, is used to come up with "source" values, usually from historical data. This allows you to mine Fusion's history for lot's similar to the one you are creating projections for and then use whichever values you think will apply to the new lot. These values then move into the middle area called Input Values. This area contains the fields that drive the last area: Projection Values. Any time an input value field is changed, either by copying a source value or by changing it manually, the projection values will be updated.
This means you can use the window by entering input values directly, filling in the input values from a source, or by filling in the input values from a source and then manually tweaking any input value fields as you see fit. In any case, the projection values will be updated.
If you opened this window from a Lot Edit window, you can save the projections back to the lot by clicking the Save button. Fusion will save both the input and projection values so you can see the whole scenario later on.
Let's look at each area of the window in more depth.
At the top of the source area are some tabs which can be used to access different source possibilities. These are explained next.
This tab shows common selectors used to determine which historical lots Fusion will use to come up with the source values. You can use as many selectors as you want. Each time you change a selector, Fusion will show you how many lots match the criteria in the bottom left of the source area. This will help you make sure you have enough lots for the data to make sense. If you have too few lots, consider not using some of the selectors.
If you have opened this window for a specific lot, the first four selectors (Location, Cattle Type, Sex, and First In Date) will automatically be set to match the lot. If you hover your mouse cursor over any of the buttons, a small tool tip will appear showing you the lot's value for that selector. If you click any of the buttons, the corresponding selector will be set to the lot's value. In this way you can quickly narrow the source to pull from lots that are similar to the lot based on criteria that are important to you.
When you are happy with the selectors you have chosen, click the Update Last Source Values button. Fusion will look at all the lots that meet the selector's criteria and place their combined values into the Last Source Values tab. This tab will automatically be selected so you can use it to fill in the input values as desired. This tab is explained in more detail below.
If you want more control over which lots are used for historical data than the Fusion Selectors tab offers, you can use this tab instead. Within this tab is a full Lot Center type list. You can use the button to access the Advanced Find, Advanced Sort, and other functionality you are familiar with in other list windows to narrow the selection of lots however you like. You can even manually select any lots you like.
Make sure you have the desired lots selected and then click the Update Last Source Values button. Fusion will update the Last Source Values tab based on the combined lots you have selected and automatically select that tab. Again, this tab is explained more below.
If you have taken the time though any of the available mechanisms (including manual entry) to come up with input values you feel you will use again in the future, you can save them as a template. It can be faster to re-use a template if you know the input values will be the same. To create a new template, make sure the input values (in the Input Values section) are what you want to save and then click the Create Template With Input Values button. You will be asked to enter a name for the saved template. This name must be unique.
To use a saved template, you can either Double-Click it in the Template list or select it and click the Update Last Source Values From Selected Template button. Either way, Fusion will load the values from the saved template into the source values and automatically select the Last Source Values tab so you can use the saved values any way you like.
If you want to change an existing template, set up the new input values, make sure the template is selected, and click the Update Selected Template With Input Values button. The input values will be saved into the template. You can delete a template you no longer need by selecting it and clicking the Delete Selected Template button.
It is common for a template to only exist for a few minutes. For example, you may create a template when you know you will be working with very similar lots in the next few minutes. You could use the template for each one and then delete it when you are done.
As mentioned above, no matter which source you use, the result is that the source values in this tab get updated. You can then move any of these values into the Input Values area of the window. There are actually two sections in this tab:
If you click the Fill Input Values From These Values button in the Last Source Values section, all the values from that section will be copied into the corresponding input values and the projection values will be updated.
If you click the Fill Input Values From These Values button in the Lot Values section, the lot's In Date, In Weight, Purchase Dollars, and Interest Rate fields will be copied into the input values. In addition, the Sale Dollars field will also be updated in either of these conditions:
If you have entered something in the Projected Sales field, Fusion will multiply the Projected Sales by the Out Weight to come up with a new Sale Dollars.
If the Projected Sales field is blank, but the lot's Purchase Dollars field is not zero, Fusion will set the Sale Dollars field to be equal to the lot's Purchase Dollars plus the input value's Feed + Drugs + Inputs + Yardage + Other Items which would result in a profit of $0.00.
It is common for the button in the Last Source Values section to be clicked first and (assuming you've entered something in the Projected Sales field) the button in the Lot Values section to be clicked immediately after. This normally results in the input values being the ones you want to start with and can tweak as necessary.
|You can copy individual fields from this area to the input area by simply clicking a field.|
The fields in this area drive the projection values as they are changed. As mentioned above, you will usually fill these fields from a source, but they can be entered directly or just tweaked after using a source. As you make changes, the projection values will automatically update. See below to learn about the underlying calculations.
These fields are calculated based on the input values. The underlying calculations are explained below.
If you are using this window with a lot, there will be Save and Cancel buttons. Use the Save button to send the projection (and inputs) back to the lot. Remember to save the Lot Edit window as well! If you click the Cancel button, the lot's projections will not change.
If you are using this window without a lot, there will only be a Done button which you can use to close the window when you are done using it.
When multiple lots are used to come up with the last source values, Fusion uses the same method that is available in the Lot Center window to combine lots in the detail area. In fact, if you know which lots are being combined to come up with the source values, you could select the same lots in the Lot Center window, open the detail area, and click the Update Detail Area button. If you look for the right fields in the detail area you will see they match what Fusion came up with for source values in the Projections Calculator window. The only exceptions are the Sale Dollars and Feed values which are explained next.
Historical sales dollars have little value for projections, so Fusion attempts to use default values that give you a good starting point. When combining lots, Fusion will set the source's Sale Dollars field to be the source's Purchase Dollars + Feed + Drugs + Inputs + Yardage + Other Items which would result in a profit of $0.00 if all the source values where moved into the input values.
Because feed costs are such a large portion of the overall cost of feeding cattle, and because ingredient pricing can vary significantly over time, Fusion does some extra calculations when coming up with the feed value based on historical data. The process is simple. First, Fusion combines the lots as explained above. If you were to do this in the Lot Center window and look at the Feed Usage By Ingredient detail area, you would see a list of ingredients that were used during the feeding period for the lots. It also shows the total quantity of each ingredient. The Projections Calculator window has access to the same information. It assumes the same quantity of each ingredient, but multiplies it by the current projection price for that ingredient. These amounts are added together and then scaled back for one animal and the resulting value becomes the Feed value. So Fusion basically reprices the ingredients that were used to be more current for your projections.
|The projection price is another attribute that can be set in the Bulk Attribute Change window. If an ingredient doesn't have a current projection price, Fusion will use the current bill at price instead.|
Each time an input value changes, the following formulas are used to update the projection values. Variables in brackets are intermediate values that are calculated first and then used in the final formulas. Ex. [Weight Gain]. Also note that the way interest is calculated is dependent on how you have set up you interest preferences in the Preferences window. The preferences make it so you can assign a different percentage of feed, drugs, etc. to the overall interest. These are shown below with the word Pref in the variable name. Not shown in the formulas is that values are also converted to your chosen unit for animal pricing. For example, if you use cwt instead of lb or kg for pricing, the values are appropriately converted to reflect this.
|[Cost] =||Feed + Drugs + Inputs + Yardage + Other Items|
|[Interest Rate] =||Interest Rate ÷ 100 ÷ 365 x Days on Feed|
|[Interest] =||( Purchase Dollars x [Interest Rate] x [Purchase Price Pref] )
+ ( Feed x [Interest Rate] x [Feed Price Pref] )
+ ( Drugs x [Interest Rate] x [Drugs Price Pref] )
+ ( Inputs x [Interest Rate] x [Inputs Price Pref] )
+ ( Yardage x [Interest Rate] x [Yardage Price Pref] )
+ ( Other Items x [Interest Rate] x [Other Items Price Pref] )
|[Death Loss] =||( 100 - Death Loss ) ÷ 100|
|[Weight Gain] =||( Out Weight x [Death Loss] ) - In Weight|
|Cost of Gain Without Interest =||[Cost] ÷ [Weight Gain]|
|Cost of Gain With Interest =||( [Cost] + [Interest] ) ÷ [Weight Gain]|
|Purchase Break Even Without Interest =||( Sale Dollars - [Cost] ) ÷ In Weight|
|Purchase Break Even With Interest =||( Sale Dollars - [Cost] - [Interest] ) ÷ In Weight|
|Sale Break Even Without Interest =||( Purchase Dollars + [Cost] ) ÷ Out Weight|
|Sale Break Even With Interest =||( Purchase Dollars + [Cost] + [Interest] ) ÷ Out Weight|
|Profit Without Interest =||( Sale Dollars - Purchase Dollars - [Cost] ) x [Death Loss]|
|Profit With Interest =||( Sale Dollars - Purchase Dollars - [Cost] - [Interest] ) x [Death Loss]|
|Days on Feed =||( Out Weight - In Weight ) ÷ Avg Daily Gain|
|Estimated Slaughter Date =||In Date + Days on Feed|
You can open this window by going to Fusion Office → Utilities → Projections Calculator. You can also get to it from the Lot Edit window.